Coronavirus: Winter wave could lead to 120,000 further deaths

The UK could see a second wave of coronavirus this winter which is ‘worse than the first’ according to a report by the Academy of Medical Sciences.


The total number of confirmed deaths relating to Covid-19 stands at 44,830.  Confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England is 29,066.


Scientists were asked to model a “reasonable” worst case scenario.


The report was commissioned by the Government’s chief medical advisor Sir Patrick Vallance who says preventative measures must be taken immediately.


The R number in the UK currently is 0.7 – 0.9, however the “worst case scenario” could see that figure rise to 1.7



Experts are concerned the NHS is already under severe pressure due to the added workload from Covid-19 on top of regular non-coronavirus issues.


Research has suggested the virus can survive longer in cold conditions
Medical Research Council clinical professor, Stephen Holgate, who led the study, said:
“This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility.
“The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.
“With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”

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